Belgium play Finland in their final game with Russia and Denmark also meeting to decide who makes the knockout stages. Belgium are the only side in the group currently guaranteed a spot in the later rounds, and all 3 of the other teams still have a chance.
Belgium – Belgium are in the last 16 and a win or draw here will guarantee them top spot.
Finland – If Finland win and Russia don’t win, Finland would finish top of the group. If Finland Draw and Russia lose then Finland would secure 2nd spot in the group. If Finland lose they could still finish 2nd on goal difference if Denmark beat Russia. If Finland lose and Russia win or draw vs Denmark then Finland will finish in 3rd place in the group and would need to qualify as a 3rd placed side.
Russia – If Russia win and Finland don’t win, then Russia finish 2nd. If Russia draw and Finland don’t win then Russia would finish 2nd in the group. If Russia lose and Finland win, then Russia would finish 4th in the group. If Russia win and Finland win that would leave Russia, Belgium and Finland all tied on 6 points, and goal difference would have to be used due to all of them having beaten 1 other side and lost to the other in head to head record. Even if Finland win a draw would likely be enough for Russia to qualify as a best 3rd placed team.
Denmark – If Denmark win and Belgium beat Finland, Denmark can still finish 2nd in the group courtesy of goal difference. That scenario would leave Finland, Denmark and Russia all on 3 points, and as the head too head stats would leave them all with 1 win and 1 loss, goal difference would be used.
Belgium are 1/20 to win the group (Bet365), with Denmark the favourites out of the rest to qualify. Denmark 8/11 (Bet365), Russia 4/5 (Bet365) and Finland 1/1 (Bet365), loom to have an almighty scrap on their hands for 2nd place, but also for 3rd place as well.
The winner of this group will play one of the best 3rd place finishing sides. The runner up in this group will play the runner up in group A, who will be Italy or Wales. The 3rd placed side in this group, should they qualify for the knock out stages, will meet the winner of group F or E, who could be any of France, Germany, Portugal, Sweden, Slovakia or Spain.
Lets look at the last two games and how things may play out.
Finland vs Belgium
In their 2 games at this tournament so far, Finland have scored 1 goal, conceded 1 goal, had 12 shots with 2 on target, they have an average possession of 35.50%, have been given 4 yellow cards, no red cards and taken 1 corner.
Belgium have scored 5 goals, conceded 1, had 15 shots with 9 on target, they have an average possession of 60%, have been given 1 yellow card, no red cards and taken 6 corners.
The referee for this game is Felix Brych (Germany), this season he has been the man in the middle of 34 games, giving 106 yellow cards and 6 red cards, for an average of 3.12 yellow cards per game and 0.18 red cards per game. In his career he has refereed 324 games, giving 1194 yellow cards and 73 red cards, for an average of 3.69 yellow cards per game and 0.23 red cards per game.
Finland will be delighted to be in their final group game and not just with a chance of qualifying but with a chance of topping the group. However, I cannot see that happening with Belgium having far too much firepower for Finland, even if they rest some of their bigger names. Belgium can do Denmark a big favour by thumping Finland here, and i see quite a big score line on the cards. Belgium players will want to pick up form heading into the knock out rounds and some will want to force their way into the squad for those knock out games. I see a pretty routine win for Belgium here by 4 or maybe even 5 goals to nil. Finland have been unimpressive to me in this tournament, with their only goal coming in a game against Denmark that many people feel should never have been played there and then following the events with Christian Eriksen. They have had just 2 shots on target in their opening 2 games and if they give this Belgium side the luxury of 60/70% possession, I see it being a long afternoon for the fins.
Russia vs Denmark
In their 2 games at this years tournament, Russia have scored 1 goal, conceded 3, had 19 shots with 4 on target, an average possession of 46%, been given 3 yellow cards, no red cards and taken 8 corners.
Denmark have scored 1 goal, conceded 3, had 43 shots with 11 on target, have had an average possession 58.50%, been given 3 yellow cards, no red cards and taken 11 corners.
This is going to be a highly emotionally charged game, Denmark know that a win here puts them in the driving seat to finishing 2nd in the group and qualifying for thee knock out rounds. Russia know that a win guarantees them 2nd spot, with a draw likely to be enough assuming Finland don’t spring a surprise against Belgium. Denmark have had a remarkable amount of shots this tournament with 43, more than double the 19 Russia have managed. If Denmark play in the same way they did in the first half against Belgium then their will only be 1 winner here. Even if they don’t reproduce that level of intensity and commitment in their play, I can see them being too much for a Russia side who don’t look anything special. I see Denmark winning this by a 2-0 score line to secure a last 16 spot, assuming Belgium beat Finland as i expect them to.